ICG Afghanistan Elections <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6517&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6515&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6512&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6516&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6514&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6513&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>Two actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in January 2010, according to CrisisWatch. In Haiti, up to 200,000 are feared dead in a devastating earthquake that has reversed much of the country’s recent progress in institutional strengthening, while a fresh outbreak of violence between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria claimed at least 320 lives. The situation improved in Guinea where hopes for an end to military rule were raised after successful talks between junta leaders and regional mediator Blaise Campaoré.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6510&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6518&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6505&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6520&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6497&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6508&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6499&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6494&rss=1">Read media release</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6488&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6501&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6500&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6498&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6496&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6485&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6484&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6477&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6475&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6480&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6474&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>Nepal’s peace process is undermined by the failure to address the systematic crimes committed during the country’s conflict. Crisis Group examines the impact of the abuses and impunity on the peace process, the institutional cultures that allowed the crimes to be committed in the first place, and the prospects for progress on justice. Tackling justice now is not only feasible but would also improve the chances of re-establishing productive political negotiations and salvaging the credibility of the parties and the state. For those directly affected by the conflict, the pursuit of justice and reparation, as well as the truth about the abuses suffered, is not an abstract concern.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6471&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6470&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>If the government of the Central African Republic (CAR) fails to re-engage with the opposition on upcoming elections and negotiate with remaining rebels, its fragile peace process will be at serious risk. Crisis Group examines the impact of the Inclusive Political Dialogue and the current challenges to a state that has lacked meaningful institutional capacity for some three decades. It argues that the unwillingness of President François Bozizé and his close circle to follow through with many of the concessions agreed on during the December 2008 talks risks exacerbating the country’s conflicts and stalling national reconciliation.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6467&rss=1">Read more</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6468&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>No matter which of the two main Sinhalese candidates wins Sri Lanka’s 26 January presidential election, the international community must take steps to ensure he addresses the marginalisation of Tamils and other minorities in the interest of peace and stability. Eight months after the military victory over the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the post-war policies of President Mahinda Rajapaksa have deepened rather than resolved the grievances that generated and sustained militancy. Though the election campaign between Rajapaksa and retired General Sarath Fonseka has now opened up some new political space, Sri Lanka has yet to make significant progress in reconstructing its battered democratic institutions or establishing conditions for a stable peace. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6462&rss=1">Read more</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6464&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6458&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>If Central Asian countries want to survive as viable independent states and avoid political and social instability in the region, they need to make urgent reforms in the labour sector. The International Crisis Group examines the impact of the global financial crisis on migration from three Central Asian countries:  Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. The report warns that the lumpenisation of Central Asian societies will continue, as qualified, educated and healthy younger members of the work force leave for Russia and Kazakhstan. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6456&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6455&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6472&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6454&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>A failure to stabilise Jonglei and other areas of concern risks seeing South Sudan become increasingly unstable ahead of next year’s national elections and the 2011 self-determination referendum. The International Crisis Group examines the situation in South Sudan, where violent conflict claimed several thousand lives in 2009. Inter-tribal fighting, while not a new phenomenon, has taken on a new and dangerously politicised character, with the worst violence in and around the vast, often impassable state of Jonglei. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6452&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6459&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6453&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>The international outrage generated by last month’s massacre in Maguindanao, southern Philippines, of 57 men and women, half of them journalists, may offer opportunities to make progress in the areas of justice, security and peace. The latest update briefing from the International Crisis Group, shows how the 23 November killings were not the result of a clan feud, as widely reported, but of Manila’s deliberate nurturing of a ruthless warlord in exchange for votes.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6451&rss=1">Read more</a> <p>The decision on whether to change the constitution to enable President Álvaro Uribe to seek a third consecutive term in 2010 will have important consequences for Colombia’s efforts to resolve its armed conflict and tensions with its neighbours. The International Crisis Group examines the process of enabling a third presidential term and why the decision on this fundamental issue needs to be accompanied by a recognition that pressing questions of national security, strengthening of democratic institutions and conflict resolution will not wait and should not depend on who may sit in the presidential office after August 2010.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6449&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6447&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6443&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>If the international community does not step in to ensure full implementation of Sudan’s North-South peace deal and shore up other failing centre-periphery agreements, the country risks a return to all-out civil war. The International Crisis Group examines the situation in the run-up to national elections due next year and the early 2011 referendum on self-determination in the South. It concludes that key elements of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), which ended the two-decades-long civil war between North and South Sudan, have not been implemented. The failure to foster democratic transformation in the North has also undermined the chances for political settlement in Darfur and exacerbated tensions in other parts of the country. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6438&rss=1">Read more</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6442&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6440&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>U.S. diplomatic engagement with Syria risks losing momentum if it fails to build upon several potentially promising changes in Damascus's policy. This report completes a two-part International Crisis Group series published this week on that key Middle Eastern country’s evolving strategy, examining the motives for new directions in foreign policy since 2008 that have enabled Damascus to take the initiative after years of isolation. Paradoxically, little has happened in relations with Washington since President Obama took office, despite hopes generated by his election. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6437&rss=1">Read full report</a> <p>Prisons in Central Asia are becoming hothouses for the growth of militant Islamism, threatening long-term stability in the region. There is a rising number and political significance of Islamists in state detention. It argues that the governments’ tough policy on political Islam only increases the risk of violent militancy. The failure to differentiate between armed Islamist groups and those who oppose the state by political means will deepen the divide between the observant Muslim population and central governments – a particularly dangerous development at a time when the risk of armed Islamic insurgency is growing.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6435&rss=1">Read more</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6439&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6436&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>Syria’s foreign policy has long been a contradictory mix of militancy and pragmatism, but new dynamics create opportunities for the U.S. if it does more to deepen its engagement. This Crisis Group report examines changes in Damascus’s outlook and concludes that further shifts will hinge on the regime’s assessment of the costs of its choices, both in terms of domestic stability and regional standing. That, in turn, largely will depend on what other parties do. This is the first part of a Crisis Group report that analyses changes in Syria’s regional approach and prospects for improved relations with Washington. The second part with further details will be published shortly. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6434&rss=1">Read full report</a>