ICG Afghanistan Elections <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6580&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6581&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6579&rss=1">Read media release</a> <p>A substantive dialogue between the Indonesian government and Papuan leaders could help stem political radicalisation in the country’s easternmost province. The latest report from the International Crisis Group charts the radicalisation of activists from the central highlands, the province’s mountainous spine, and links a small group of them, the pro-independence National Committee for West Papua (Komite Nasional Papua Barat, KNPB),  to some of the violence that erupted in Papua in 2009. The KNPB is not broadly representative and its tactics are decried by other activists, but its message – that peaceful methods have failed to produce results – resonates more widely.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6569&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6567&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6578&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6577&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6566&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6565&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6568&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6559&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6560&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6572&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6556&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>Despite initial scepticism, Zimbabwe’s year-old unity government has achievements to its credit. But the democratic transition remains at risk, especially from hard-line security officials – President Robert Mugabe’s last reliable supporters. The latest briefing from the International Crisis Group analyses the situation resulting from the Global Political Agreement (GPA) that broke the stalemate following failed 2008 presidential elections and led to formation of the unity government in February 2009. It concludes that all domestic signatories of the GPA, as well as the South African mediation, must embrace democratic transformation as the vital objective of the transition.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6554&rss=1">Read more</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6555&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6557&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>Four actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in February 2010, according to CrisisWatch. Côte d’Ivoire’s President Gbagbo dissolved both the electoral commission and government on 12 February, triggering violent protests that killed at least 7. In Niger soldiers launched a successful military coup, while in Kenya the coalition government was plunged into crisis over two major corruption scandals. The situations improved in Yemen, where the government and Houthi rebels reached a peace agreement, and in Guinea, where prospects for an end to military rule continued to improve.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6553&rss=1">Read full report</a> <p>The Bangladesh government has taken steps to dismantle the terrorist group Jamaat-ul Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB), but it should not take its demise for granted: the organisation is regrouping and the possibility of another attack is increasing. Despite two government crackdowns since 2005, the organisation continues to recruit, train and raise funds. Although JMB is a much weaker force due to the arrest of hundreds of its members and the execution of its original leadership council, it remains a potent threat with a proven capacity to regenerate. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6552&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6551&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>In the eighteen months since Russia recognised it as independent from Georgia, small but strategic Abkhazia has become increasingly dependent on its giant patron. The International Crisis Group gives a snapshot of the current situation, particularly the extent of Russian economic, political and cultural dominance in the Black Sea entity.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6550&rss=1">Read full report</a> <p>The run-up to the Iraqi elections on 7 March has brought to light deep-seated problems that threaten the country’s fragile recovery. The latest report from the International Crisis Group examines the path to the country’s third parliamentary election in five years. Issues that complicated and almost derailed the elections – the disqualification of almost 500 candidates on charges of Baathist affiliation, accusations of demographic manipulations in Kirkuk, fears over the rights of out-of-country voters – reflect more profound conflicts that could haunt efforts to form a new government. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6548&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6549&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora groups should move away, once and for all, from the failed agenda of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and instead put their energies into the quest for a sustainable and just peace in a united Sri Lanka. The latest report from the International Crisis Group examines political dynamics within the Tamil diaspora since May 2009, as Tamils abroad adapt to the LTTE’s defeat. While there is little chance of the Tamil Tigers regrouping in the diaspora, most Tamils abroad remain profoundly committed to a separate state of Tamil Eelam in Sri Lanka.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6545&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6546&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6544&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6541&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6537&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6536&rss=1">Read more</a> <p>China lacks the West’s urgency about the Iran nuclear issue, is yet to be convinced Tehran is near capability to highly enrich and weaponise uranium or a military confrontation is imminent, and insists more diplomacy is key to a peaceful solution. In addition to energy, its relationship with Tehran is shaped by broader foreign and domestic policy calculations. It likely will pursue a delay-and-weaken strategy on sanctions the West says are needed to produce serious negotiations, but if facing unanimous support for new sanctions in the Security Council, it can be expected to avoid a veto and focus on ensuring punitive measures will not harm its interests.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6535&rss=1">Read more</a> <p>If Pakistan’s deteriorating civil service is not urgently repaired, public disillusionment and resentment could be used by the military to justify another spell of authoritarian rule. The International Crisis Group analyses the structure and functioning of Pakistan’s civil bureaucracy and identifies critical flaws as well as measures to make it more accountable. Military rule has left behind a demoralised and inefficient bureaucracy that was used to ensure regime survival. Low salaries, insecure tenure, obsolete accountability mechanisms and political interference have spawned widespread corruption and impunity. If the flaws of an unreformed bureaucracy are not urgently addressed, the government risks losing public support.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6528&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6532&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>Burundi’s escape from its long civil war can only be solidified if all political forces, including government, opposition parties, civil society and media ensure that this year’s series of elections is truly democratic. The International Crisis Group examines the rise in tensions before communal, presidential, legislative and additional local elections that are to be conducted separately between May and September. Such an escalation could lead to new violence that would ruin the credibility of the electoral process and endanger a fragile democracy. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6527&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6533&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6540&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6526&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6525&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6524&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6521&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6517&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6515&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6512&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6516&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <p>Two actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated and two improved in January 2010, according to CrisisWatch. In Haiti, up to 200,000 are feared dead in a devastating earthquake that has reversed much of the country’s recent progress in institutional strengthening, while a fresh outbreak of violence between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria claimed at least 320 lives. The situation improved in Guinea where hopes for an end to military rule were raised after successful talks between junta leaders and regional mediator Blaise Campaoré.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6510&rss=1">Read full report</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6513&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6514&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6518&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6505&rss=1">Read speech</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6520&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6497&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6508&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6499&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6494&rss=1">Read media release</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6488&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6501&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6496&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6498&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6500&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6485&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=6484&rss=1">Read op-ed</a>