http://www.blogverticals.com/viewcompilation/7 ICG Afghanistan Elections en 2008-07-03T23:02-08:00 http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5551 <p>Nepal’s major parties should cooperate in a coalition government led by the Maoists, who won the April Constituent Assembly (CA) elections, to help the world’s newest republic avoid political instability. The International Crisis Group today released companion reports: Nepal’s Election: a Peaceful Revolution?, an extensive analysis of the 10 April vote, and Nepal’s New Political Landscape, which examines the major challenges remaining in a peace process that has made considerable progress but is still incomplete. The way in which political leaders cope with the election aftermath will determine whether the remarkable result delivers peace and change or further conflict.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5551&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5552 <p>Nepal’s major parties should cooperate in a coalition government led by the Maoists, who won the April Constituent Assembly (CA) elections, to help the world’s newest republic avoid political instability. The International Crisis Group today released companion reports: Nepal’s Election: a Peaceful Revolution?, an extensive analysis of the 10 April vote, and Nepal’s New Political Landscape, which examines the major challenges remaining in a peace process that has made considerable progress but is still incomplete. The way in which political leaders cope with the election aftermath will determine whether the remarkable result delivers peace and change or further conflict.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5552&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5549 <p>The international community must encourage reform tendencies in Guinea-Bissau to counter the risk of the West African country becoming a narco-state and political no-man’s land of interest to Maghreb criminal and terrorist networks. Despite 35 years of institutional incapacity, a chance exists for democratic reforms thanks to the signing of a Stability Pact by the three most important political parties. Fundamental changes are required to the way the country is run. Above all, army reform is needed to free the political system from military interference. Foreign partners must galvanise their efforts and seize what appears to be a genuine opportunity.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5549&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5528 <p>Five actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in June 2008. In Zimbabwe, state violence escalated ahead of the 27 June presidential run-off vote, as the Mugabe regime continued its brutal crackdown to secure victory. Uganda's peace process further broke down amid reports of fresh LRA attacks. Insecurity surged in Nigeria’s Niger Delta, as progress on the much-delayed peace summit faltered. The situation also deteriorated in Djibouti/Eritrea and Chad. June saw improvements in North Korea, where the government submitted a long-awaited declaration of its nuclear programs, and in Serbia and the Taiwan Strait.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5528&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5522 <p>President Lee’s conservative Grand National Party, which won the April legislative elections, has had a difficult start to implementing its policy agenda, with widespread street demonstrations and an opposition legislative boycott. The GNP seeks to improve strained relations with the U.S. and coordination with allies in confronting North Korea’s nuclear program, as well as push for domestic deregulation, privatisation, tax cuts and a more business friendly environment. While these measures will be mostly welcomed abroad, there will be losers in South Korea, who have shown their potential for disruption. For the agenda to succeed, Lee will need to show more willingness to seek consensus.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5522&rss=1">Read more</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5519 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5519&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5511 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5511&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5513 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5513&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5514 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5514&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5503 <p>The political and economic change Guineans demanded in 2007 is in jeopardy following the dismissal of Prime Minister Lansana Kouyaté on 20 May and his replacement by Tidiane Souaré, a close ally of President Lansana Conté. The calming talk about inclusion and pursuit of ‘change’ from the new head of government should fool no one. Without robust pressure from civil society, political actors and religious leaders, the government will likely break its promise of credible legislative elections in December 2008, compromise economic revival and bury the independent commission of enquiry tasked with identifying and prosecuting authors of the bloody 2007 crackdown. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5503&rss=1">Read more</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5520 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5520&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5499 <p>The confrontation between the Morales administration and Bolivia’s political and regional opposition could end in violence unless both sides commit to dialogue and compromise. The political deadlock stems from President Evo Morales’s efforts to consolidate sweeping reforms on the basis of a controversial, still provisional constitution, and the eastern lowlands’ demand for departmental autonomy. On 22 June, Tarija is expected to join its three neighbours (Santa Cruz, Beni and Pando) in adopting an autonomy statute in a referendum the central government does not recognise. While Bolivia’s break-up is not imminent, continued mutual intransigence is likely to produce serious further destabilisation.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5499&rss=1">Read more</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5500 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5500&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5487 <p>The three-year clash between the government and the Muslim Brothers is damaging Egypt's political life. Ending this confrontation and moving towards the long-term goal of integrating the Brothers into the political mainstream is a far better option. The regime should recognise the Muslim Brothers’ ambition to create a legal political party, take the opportunity to set clear standards for integration and end its campaign of mass arrests, made possible by the draconian Emergency Law. For their part, the Muslim Brothers should finalise and clarify their political program in order to reassure their critics.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5487&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5498 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5498&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5490 <p>The Ethiopia-Eritrea impasse carries a major source of instability in the Horn of Africa region and risks a new deadly war. Following Ethiopia’s refusal to accept virtual demarcation of the border by the Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC), Asmara unilaterally implemented it and forced out the UN peacekeeping mission (UNMEE), significantly raising the stakes and shattering the status quo. A new, strongly supported international action plan is needed to break the deadlock and resuscitate the framework for consolidating the peace agreement and normalising bilateral relations. Continued international failure could mean renewed conflict. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5490&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5488 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5488&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5489 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5489&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5485 <p>Conflict between Muslim and Christian communities in Papua could erupt unless rising tensions are effectively managed. A number of factors have led to increasing strains in Papua: continuing Muslim migration from elsewhere in Indonesia; the emergence of new, exclusivist groups in both Christian and Muslim religious communities; the lasting impact of the Maluku conflict; and the impact of developments outside Papua. The potential for communal conflict is high because both sides consider themselves aggrieved. Goverment officials at all levels – central, provincial and district – should avoid support for exclusivist religious groups, and ensure that funding for all religious activities is fully transparent. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5485&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5483 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5483&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5477 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5477&rss=1">Read media release</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5478 <p>The fear of China “locking up” energy supplies around the world is misplaced, and other countries should cooperate with it to ensure a more cooperative international environment on both energy and wider security issues. Chinese companies’ investment in oil exploration and extraction in countries and regions suffering from deadly conflict has complicated conflict resolution. At the same time, Beijing is willing to play a more constructive role, as it increasingly engages with the international system and learns the limits of a foreign policy based on the traditional principle of non-interference. In the right conditions, China can play an important role in the solution.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5478&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5479 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5479&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5480 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5480&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5481 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5481&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5469 <p>Moscow and Tbilisi need to cease military preparations in and around Abkhazia and cool their rhetoric lest their increasingly dangerous confrontation bring war to the Caucasus. Russia should withdraw the troops and equipment it has deployed over the past two months. At the same time, Georgia should adopt a new approach to the Abkhaz, encouraging their links to the outside world to lessen dependence on Russia and emphasising genuine confidence building. Neither Georgia nor Russia probably wants war, but it could all too easily come by miscalculation, and if it does, it could set the Caucasus – North and South – ablaze.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5469&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5471 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5471&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5466 <p>To halt escalating killings fuelled by indigenous jihadi movements in Dagestan, Moscow and local leaders must implement an efficient anti-corruption policy and reintegrate youth into the economic and political system. Street warfare has increased since 2003 and has far surpassed inter-ethnic conflict over land, resources and employment as the main source of violence. Large-scale war is unlikely to develop in Dagestan. Nevertheless, the federal authorities need to undertake serious efforts to break the cycle of attacks and reprisals between security forces and militants, which has grown distinctly worse in the past year.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5466&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5461 <p>Eight actual or potential conflict situations around the world deteriorated in May 2008, and four improved, according to the new issue of CrisisWatch, released today. Violence flared ahead of and during 1 June parliamentary elections in Macedonia with two killed in clashes between rival Albanian parties. Brutal xenophobic attacks on foreigners in South Africa erupted in Alexandra township on 11 May and spread across the country. The situation also deteriorated in Guinea, India (non-Kashmir), Mali, Myanmar/Burma, Sudan and Zimbabwe. The situation improved in Lebanon, Nepal, Syria and the Taiwan Strait. For June CrisisWatch identifies Zimbabwe as a Conflict Risk Alert.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5461&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5462 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5462&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5458 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5458&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5450 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5450&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5446 <p>Violence in Zimbabwe is likely to escalate and could lead to a military coup or martial law unless African and other international leaders help negotiate a government of national unity led by Morgan Tsvangirai. Given the level of violence, there seems almost no way to hold a credible second-round presidential vote as is now planned for 27 June. All parties should still aim for this in the best conditions possible, but a negotiated solution between ZANU-PF and Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change should be the higher priority, since it is far likelier to resolve the crisis peacefully. </p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5446&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5447 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5447&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5445 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5445&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5526 <p>The announcement of an Arab League-mediated agreement is welcome, but if Lebanon is to step back from risk of a new civil war, a package deal must be crafted that defines and regulates use of Hizbollah’s weapons without disarming it at this time. The government has wisely withdrawn the controversial decisions that sparked the crisis. Now the onus is on all Lebanese parties to de-escalate the situation and reach a broader political accord. To stabilize the situation, Lebanon must find a middle ground between irresponsibly allowing Hizbollah unfettered use of its weapons and recklessly seeking its forcible disarmament.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5526&rss=1">Read more</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5441 <p>The U.S. and the Philippines need to refocus energies on peace processes in Mindanao or they risk new hostilities between government forces and insurgents. U.S.-backed security operations in the southern Philippines are confusing counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism and risk pushing the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG), their target, into the arms of the broader insurgencies in Mindanao, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The only way the Philippines will effectively manage domestic terrorism is to secure the cooperation of the MILF and MNLF, and that requires concrete progress toward formal peace agreements.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5441&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5425 <p>Congo’s reconstruction hinges on the Ituri district, where a new integrated peace-building strategy is required, involving national and provincial institutions, with the active support of the UN Mission in Congo (MONUC) and donors. Land-related tensions that were at the origin of the conflict have not been eased and constantly threaten to lead to new inter-ethnic confrontations. With the return of refugees to their homes, a resurgence of those tensions seems inevitable without preventive measures. It is also critical to the peace process to establish a framework for transparent treatment of Ituri’s resources. Absent an integrated approach, the return of chaos is likely.</p> <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5425&rss=1">Read full report</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5430 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5430&rss=1">Read op-ed</a> http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5439 <a href="http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5439&rss=1">Read op-ed</a>